VoxEU.org - 10/9/2008
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Nicholas Bloom , 8 October 2008 The crisis is shaping up to be a perfect storm – a huge surge in uncertainty that is generating a rapid slow-down in activity, a collapse of banking preventing many of the few remaining firms and consumers that want to invest from doing so, and a shift in the ...
chronicle.com - 10/3/2008
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chronicle.com —
The depression of 1929 is the wrong model
for the current economic crisis By SCOTT REYNOLDS NELSON...
As a historian who works on the 19th century, I have been reading my newspaper with a considerable sense of dread. While many commentators on the recent ...
(more)
The Real Great Depression - ChronicleReview.com
ft.com - 10/6/2008
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ft.com —
The Federal Reserve and US Treasury were on
Sunday night under increasing pressure to follow passage of...
the $700bn financial rescue plan with further measures to shock the ailing credit markets back to life. Among the options available to policymakers ...
(more)
FT.com / In depth - Fed under pressure to do more on ...
blogs.marketwatch.com - 10/2/2008
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blogs.marketwatch.com —
Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy has the ETN
world abuzz. Exchange-traded notes are similar to ETFs, but...
they carry credit risk. That difference has thrust ETNs into the spotlight during the market storm. I spoke to Morningstar’s ETF expert, ...
(more)
More on the credit crunch and ETFs
Comments
Blog Reactions
No Depression?
Economist's View —
Don't worry, be happy - at least it won't be a Great Depression:
No Depression This Time, Uncle Sam Has Got Our Back, by Laurence J. Kotlikoff
and Perry Mehrling, Commentary, Washington Post: Global markets have not
been reassured by the coordinated interest rate cuts of several central banks or
by recent congressional action, but they should be. Our bet is that financial
markets will return to normal in short order and that the U.S. economy will
squeak by with a moderate recession. Recapitalizing the banks and working out
mortgages will take time, but the financial system will not collapse -- the ...
it could really happen
Decline and Fall of Western Civilization —
following on my prior ruminations, this piece from vox eu is a very sullen read. Back in June 2008 I wrote a piece for VOXEU predicting a mild recession in 2009. Over the last few weeks the situation has become far worse, and I believe even these pessimistic predictions were too optimistic. I now believe Europe and the US will sink into a severe recession next year, with GDP contracting by 3% in 2009 and unemployment rising by about 3 million in both Europe and the US. This would be the worst recession since 1974/75. In fact the current situations has so many parallels with the Great Depression of ...
More Commentary on the Financial Mess
Greg Mankiw's Blog —
Laurence Kotlikoff and Perry Mehrling Vernon Smith David Leonhardt Nouriel Roubini Robert Shiller Nicholas Bloom
"Nightmare on Main Street"
Economist's View —
Nicholas Bloom says things could get bad if we forget the "major lesson from the Great Depression of the 1930s":
2009 will be the
nightmare on Main Street, by Nicholas Bloom, voxeu.org: Every horror movie
fan knows the scene before the attack. Creepy electronic music plays. The victim
is shown from behind. The camera scans around the bushes, in the dark, to the
sound of heavy breathing. You know something evil is going to happen, but not
when, where or how.
Right now the world economy feels a lot like that. Every economist is
predicting a macabre 2009 (Philadelphia Federal ...
Uncertainty and the credit crisis: The worst may be over
VoxEU.org: Recent Articles —
It s official. As everyone now knows, the US economy is in recession and has been since December 2007. If the contraction continues for another four months, which at this point seems inevitable, this downturn will match the two longest peak to trough slides in the Post-WWII period, the first from November 1973 to March 1975, the second from July 1981 to November 1982. Whether the current recession achieves the dubious distinction of matching unemployment rates of the earlier ones (9% in May 1975 and 10.2% in November 1982) remains to be seen, but the dramatic rise in unemployment announced on 5 December 2008 is worrisome. As for the ...
A Shorter Recession? And Why This is Not Great Depression 2.0.
Toro's Running of the Bulls Market Blog —
I want to make a clarification. The tone of my posts over the past six weeks has become decidedly more bullish. After being worried about the economy and the stock market for most of my authorship of this blog, I have become more bullish on risky assets, i.e. stocks, corporate bonds, etc., than I have been in a very long time. Some may misconstrue my bullishness for risky assets as bullishness for the economy in general. This is incorrect. I am bullish on risky assets because they range from inexpensive - stocks - to ragingly dirt cheap - corporate bonds. I am of the opinion that the excesses ...
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ft.com 2/20/2009 — Disclaimer: Your use of this webcasting service is subject to FT.com’s Terms, which we encourage you to read for full details. You may only access the service for your own personal, non-commercial use. FT does not guarantee that the service will be ...
Crunch This
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I'd like to put down a marker that not all reductions in the supply of credit should qualify as a credit crunch. A credit crunch occurs when a large number of borrowers cannot get a loan at any interest rate. What we are seeing is that interest ...
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economistsview.typepad.com 11/5/2008 — The Boston Fed replies to the Minnesota Fed's
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graphs offered in support of their ...