calculatedriskblog.com - 5/15/2009
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On Saturday I excerpted from a NY Times article Shift to Saving May Be Downturn’s Lasting Impact . I argued: The saving rate will probably continue to rise (an aging population usually pushes the saving rate higher) and a rising saving rate will repair household balance sheets, but ... this will ...
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The Green Shoots Debate
The Baseline Scenario —
... there’s no going back to the economy of 2002-07: a disproportionate share of economic growth then came from finance and real estate, and that isn’t happening again for a while. More fundamentally, as Calculated Risk points out, we have reason to believe that the usual engines of recovery – personal consumption and residential real estate – are likely to be missing in action, in part because the crisis is likely to have caused a long-term increase in household savings.
So what’s with all the optimism? To s0me extent, it ...
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