econbrowser.com - 1/2/2009
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This is the first in what I'm planning will be a series of posts discussing the contribution that the energy price spike of 2008 made to our present economic difficulties. In this first installment, I revisit a very interesting research paper on the response of consumer spending to energy ...
econbrowser.com - 1/3/2009
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econbrowser.com —
In my previous post , I presented evidence
that the oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 made a...
significant contribution to the slowdown in consumption spending in general and decline in spending on domestic automobiles in particular. Here I ...
(more)
The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2
marketsci.wordpress.com - 12/30/2008
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marketsci.wordpress.com —
This strategy was inspired by the recent Bespoke
post Oil Stocks Outperforming Oil in which Bespoke showed...
the historical ratio between the price of oil stocks and the price of oil itself. I’ve reproduced their graph below. Rising values indicate ...
(more)
Trading Strategy: Oil Stocks vs Oil
gregor.us - 1/9/2009
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gregor.us —
There’s a common perception that oil experienced a
geo-political risk premium starting after 2001. While this cannot...
be quantified, I am not inclined to disagree. But if such a premium moved in and out of oil from time to time in the past 7 ...
(more)
Oil Could Be Next
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Causes: Econbrowser Speaks
The Baseline Scenario —
... posts in this occasional series.
As you might imagine, I read (or skim) a lot of economics blogs. One of my favorites is Econbrowser, written by James Hamilton and Menzie Chinn. Whereas many blogs tell me good ideas that I didn’t think of but that theoretically I might have come up with (given infinite time and mental alertness), Econbrowser almost invariably teaches me something I absolutely couldn’t have known beforehand.
In the last week, both Hamilton and Chinn have written about the causes of the current economic ...
Oil Prices and Stock Prices
A Dash of Insight —
... And most importantly, how a thoughtful economist, writing peer-reviewed work analyzes the role of markets and speculation in influencing prices. This is not an easy read, because it is detailed and analytical, with plenty of charts. It is quite clearly argued, and accessible to anyone willing to take the time. Investors should follow the excellent work of Prof. James Hamilton here and ...
Steven Chu at the 2009 EIA Energy Conference
The Oil Drum - Discussions about Energy and Our Future —
... he gave on the Helios Project a couple of years ago, although in somewhat abbreviated form. He did, however, include a comment on Econbrowser’s note that recessions follow oil price peaks and seemed to agree with the basic thesis that James Hamilton presented. He expressed again his concern that with changing climate the water in the Sierra snows is reducing, and that this does not bode well for that State. Usually a two year decline in water is sufficient to lead to water rationing and he is concerned that these will be worse. (Ed. Note – historically ...
Related Content
Causes of the Oil Shock of 2007-08
paul.kedrosky.com 4/2/2009 — Good piece by Jim Hamilton on the causes of the oil price shock of 2007-08: But while the question of the possible contribution of speculators and the Fed is a very interesting one, it should not distract us from the broader fact: some degree of ...
Causes of the Oil Shock of 2007-08
econbrowser.com 4/2/2009 — I will be presenting my latest research paper, "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08", at a conference today at the Brookings Institution . Here I review some results from that paper about what caused oil prices to rise so ...
New Oil Shock is "Inevitable"
paul.kedrosky.com 6/1/2009 — A new McKinsey report is out arguing that an oil shock is inevitable, and it could come sooner than expected. When? As early as 2010, under the firm's "moderate" economic downturn scenario, and as late as 2013 if the downturn is more ...
Rising Fear of a Future Oil Shock
nytimes.com 3/30/2009 — Reductions in investments and low oil prices could curb future supplies, leaving the world to face a new energy shock when the economy picks up, according to a study.
Do You Know What You’re Doing With Oil ETFs?
etftrends.com 1/30/2009 — Goldman Sachs has stepped forward to warn of unprecedented flows into oil exchange traded funds (ETFs), and it has raised the question of whether investors know what they’re doing.
What’s Behind the Jump? The energy analysts attribute the ...
U.S. Recession Probabilities
uoregon.edu 12/1/2008 — Recession Probabilities This page presents recession probabilities for the United States obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial ...
Oil Speculation ?
ritholtz.com 1/12/2009 — Yesterday’s 60 Minutes had a story on Oil Speculation. Its not that they said anything wrong, its more that they told 10% of the story of the rise and fall of energy prices. Surprisingly thin, it completely missed all of the many other factors ...
Rock, Scissors, Paper: Recession vs. Collapse
gregor.us 3/10/2009 — A month and a half after my fruitful exchange with Hugh Hendry of Eclectica in London, in which we essentially traded our ideas on Deflation and Sovereign Debt, the UK has moved to quantitative easing and triggered a massive rally in long-dated UK ...
One Way to Get Oil ETF Exposure, Minus Volatility
etftrends.com 1/17/2009 — The rapid volatility in oil has once again drummed up interest in the energy sector and the exchange traded funds (ETFs) that follow the commodity.
While closing down today at $41.70 a barrel, oil has rallied 23.1% from its Dec. 19 low of $33.87 a ...
Kuwait Gets Cold Feet —
The Big Money 12/29/2008
Kuwait has pulled out of a multibillion-dollar deal with Dow Chemical , a move that the Wall Street Journal calls "the latest sign of how roller-coaster energy prices are whipsawing the global economy." The planned joint venture had been ...
The Frugal Life —
The Big Money 12/29/2008
In our not-so-distant time of plenty, the word frugal might have conjured images of hardscrabble folks who've deliberately divorced themselves from modern pursuits. The Amish live frugally; the rest of us may cut back when times get rough, but ...
Poor Math —
The Big Money 12/31/2008
Not surprisingly in the midst of a long recession, poverty appears to be on the rise. In 2007, 37.3 million Americans, or one in eight, lived below the poverty line and nearly 18 percent of American children were poor. Since then, conditions have ...
Pump It Up —
The Big Money 1/5/2009
"Drill, baby, drill!" was the glibly rapacious chant that came to dominate the oil debate during the presidential race. Now "Tax, baby, tax!" is beginning to define our post-electoral national-energy-policy mood. That tax would be a gas tax, which ...
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