Blame Oil, Not Housing
Institutional Economics — Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Sunday links: down but not out
Abnormal Returns — ... Interest) Risk management for beginners.  (Baseline Scenario) How the credit crisis arose and what to do about it.  (Clusterstock, Big Picture) How VaR failed its users.  (NYTimes.com, naked capitalism) How the oil price shock affected the housing market.  (Econbrowser) States are facing “huge budget ...

What is Seen and What is Not Seen: Cow Candy Edition
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Commodity Prices and the Australian Economy: Trends versus Cycles
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Macro Non-Predictions for 2009
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Credit Default Swap Myths
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Bailouts Gone Wild: The Welfare Economics of Porn
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Life Imitates Art: Atlas Shrugged Edition
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Does ‘Peak Oil’ Cause Oil Prices or Do Oil Prices Cause ‘Peak Oil’?
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Thrift is No Paradox
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Oil Prices and Stock Prices
A Dash of Insight — ... Sullivan, looking at how actual supply and demand affected prices. And most importantly, how a thoughtful economist, writing peer-reviewed work analyzes the role of markets and speculation in influencing prices.  This is not an easy read, because it is detailed and analytical, with plenty of charts.  It is quite clearly argued, and accessible to anyone willing to take the time.  Investors should follow the excellent work of Prof. James Hamilton here and here.  It shows the oil price influence on the recession, and what we should be ...

Is Australia the Freest Country on Earth?
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Failure of US Fiscal Policy
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Multiplier Equals Zero
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Terms of Trade: Not Dead Yet
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

An Offer Über Dollar Bears Cannot Refuse
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

US Government Debt Default – It’s Happened Before
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Right Forecast, Wrong Trade II
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Rudd Bank Puts Taxpayers Last
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Rudd Bank versus AussieMac
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Causes of the 2008-09 Recession
EclectEcon — ... I'm not sure whether most of us would agree that the oil price spike of 2008 contributed to the recession, though Jim Hamilton makes a strong case for this, and I argued to a friend in e-mail that it would be a contributing factor back when it was happening. ...

‘Neo-Liberalism’ Triumphed in 1978.  Who Knew?
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Rudd in Wonderland
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Rudd in Wonderland II
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

A $42 Billion Future Tax Increase: Immiseration Not Stimulation
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Obama’s Fiscal Stimulus versus the University of Chicago
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Ken Henry on Activist Fiscal Policy
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

So Much for ‘Liquidity Enhancement’
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

‘The Last Little Timber from a Sunken Boat of Ideas’
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

‘Attacking Iran is a Shovel-Ready Project’
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Five Reasons Why Fiscal Stimulus Won’t Work
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Next Freddie and Fannie
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The 25th John Bonython Lecture and CIS Annual Dinner
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Running of the Bears
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Greenspan Counter-Factual
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Anglo-American Outperformance
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Paul Krugman, Enemy of Progress
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Peter Costello, Economic Nationalist
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Market Power is Bad, Except When it’s Our Market Power:  Harry Clarke versus the ACCC
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Ricardian Backlash to Fiscal Stimulus
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

PIMCO: Bail-Out Profiteers
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

The Giant GSE Risk Turkey: The Future of Freddie and Fannie
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

‘They will just dig them up and cart them away’
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Colloque Lippmann 71 Years On: Paris 1938 versus New York 2009
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Disaster Tourism: New York City 2009
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Educating Rudd
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Greenspan versus Taylor
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Arbitraging Congress
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

All Praise Lu Kewen Thought!
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Bubble Poppers: Monetary Policy and the Myth of ‘Bubbles’ in Asset Prices
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

My Secret Life as a Crop-Burning New Dealer
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Self-Inflicted Chinese Influence Peddling
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Keynes and the G20
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Blame it on Rio
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Political Identity Survey
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Bubble Wrap
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...

Canberra is the Problem, Not Beijing
Institutional Economics — ... Blame Oil, Not Housing Amid the GFC of 2008, it was easy to forget that 2008 also saw a major oil price shock. In a series of posts, James Hamilton argues that the oil price shock largely accounts for the downturn in the auto sector. He also presents evidence to suggest that the oil price shock was critical in exacerbating the downturn in the housing sector. Hamilton concludes that ‘if gasoline prices had stayed at $2.50 a gallon through 2008, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee would not have declared that the current recession began in December 2007.’ posted on 03 ...