krugman.blogs.nytimes.com - 1/17/2009
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Where's my anchor?
Many of us have spent a lot of time over the past year and a half obsessing about the TED spread, the difference between LIBOR and the interest rate on T-bills. TED was a good indicator of fear in the banking system; the good news is that it's way down.
But there are new [...]
calculatedriskblog.com - 1/13/2009
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calculatedriskblog.com —
Here are a few indicators of credit stress:
The TED spread is at 0.99, sharply lower. (...
improved ) The TED spread was stuck above 2.0 for some time. The peak was 4.63 on Oct 10th. The TED spread has finally moved below 1.0, although a normal ...
(more)
Credit Crisis Indicators: TED Spread Below 1.0
accruedint.blogspot.com - 1/21/2009
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accruedint.blogspot.com —
Deflation is the new buzzword, especially now that
the Consumer Price Index has declined or remained flat...
four months in a row. But that being said, its time to consider intermediate and long-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS. Its ...
(more)
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US consumer prices, industrial production fall in December
The Skeptical Speculator —
... profits are headed for record declines as well. [T]he spread between falling prices as measured by the PPI and unit labor cost implies that corporate and/or S&P; 500 profit margins are now falling at post WW II record rates. Together with sharply falling output and write-offs in the financial sector it clearly looks like the drop in corporate profits and/or S&P; 500 earnings will set a post WW II record decline this cycle. Indeed, Paul Krugman thinks that the US faces a real risk of deflation. ... These days I’m looking at ...
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