blogs.cfr.org - 5/13/2009
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The March US trade data can be spun many ways. Imports and exports continue to be down substantially relative to last year. The smaller y/y decline in March than in February is a function of the fact that both imports and exports were unusually weak in March 2008 — which improves [...]
blogs.cfr.org - 5/19/2009
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blogs.cfr.org —
If Russia were China — or if Russia’s
reserves were growing at the same pace as in...
late 2007 or early 2008 – today’s revelation that Russia cut the dollar share of its reserves over the course of 2008 would be big news. The dollar share of ...
(more)
Russia’s waning appetite for dollars
blogs.cfr.org - 5/14/2009
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blogs.cfr.org —
In March, China’s premier expressed concern about the
safety of China’s (large) investment in the US, including...
China’s investment in Treasuries. China’s citizens have realized — rather belatedly — the risks ...
(more)
Not putting your money where your mouth is
dailymarkets.com - 5/14/2009
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dailymarkets.com —
Foreign trade, both imports and exports, fell sharply
in the second half of last year, but the...
numbers are starting to level out. We see this pattern in many, many indicators: retail sales, car sales, consumer confidence, existing home sales, ...
(more)
US Foreign Trade: The Sharp Decline Is Over
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links for 2009-05-13
Economist's View —
... Obama's International and Other Tax Proposals - ataxingmatter
Searching for $90 Billion to Expand Health Care - NYT
Tax Increases Could Kill the Recovery - Feldstein - WSJ
Top 10 reasons to test “War, Guns, and Votes” for data mining - Easterly
Nicholas Stern's new climate crusade - FP Passport
Is the Housing Bust Over? - Michael Shenk - FRB Cleveland
The US March trade data … - Brad Setser ...
Additional Reflections on the March Trade Release
Econbrowser —
... NBER, and author's calculations.
Note that imports seem to be recovering. But it's important to look closely at the vertical axis; month-on-month annualized growth rate is minus 10.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate is minus 24.8%.
Goods exports month-on-month annualized growth rates have dropped back into negative territory -- at minus 22.3%. But even the year-on-year rate is -15.4%. So here, I'm in agreement with Brad Setser's observations [1], [2] -- trade has collapsed and there's little evidence that there's an incipient recovery. ...
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