calculatedriskblog.com - 1/15/2009
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Both exports and imports are declining, but the decline in the trade deficit was mostly about oil prices. Petroleum import prices fell from $92 per barrel in October to under $67 per barrel in November - and will fall further in December. The Census Bureau reports : [T]otal November exports of ...
mpettis.com - 1/13/2009
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mpettis.com —
’s December trade figures came out and, following
November’s lead, everything is moving in the wrong direction....
Exports were down 2.8% (versus up 21.7% in December 2007) which although bad at least is better than the average forecast of over 4%. ...
(more)
Is the US trade deficit sustainable? Is China’s trade ...
blogs.cfr.org - 1/13/2009
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blogs.cfr.org —
I’ll be unusually brief. I have been working
through the latest data on China — and, well,...
it is hard to top Calculated Risk. The fall in the US trade deficit today was easy to anticipate. The average price of imported oil was sure to ...
(more)
The fall in the US trade deficit in November
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The Startling Dropoff in Trade Flows
Econbrowser —
The trade release has already been remarked upon, in terms of the dropoff in both exports and imports signaling a synchronized recession. [1], [2], [3], [4]
I have little to add here, except for plotting the "cliff-diving" in log real terms.
Figure 1: Log real goods exports (blue), real goods imports (red), real goods imports ex.-oil (green), seasonally adjusted. NBER-defined recessions shaded gray (assumes recession has not ended by December 2008). Source: BEA/Census trade release of 13 January 2009 and NBER. ...
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