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Unemployment: Stress Test Scenarios, Diffusion Index, Weekly Claims
calculatedriskblog.com - 7/2/2009
Unemployment: Stress Test Scenarios, Diffusion Index, Weekly Claims
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Note: earlier Employment post: Employment Report: 467K Jobs Lost, 9.5% Unemployment Rate . The earlier post includes a comparison to previous recessions. Stress Test Scenarios Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the unemployment rate compared to the stress test ...

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Abnormal Returns:  Thursday links: a nation of renters

TraderFeed:  Evening Briefing for July 2nd

SCSUScholars:  Stressful

Unemployment Rate and Part Time Employees
calculatedriskblog.com - 7/6/2009
Unemployment Rate and Part Time Employees
— calculatedriskblog.com — The following article suggests that the large number of part time workers will slow any labor recovery: ‘I don’t need to hire anybody new. I need to work my existing workers more.’ That seems to make sense, but I wondered if it has been true in ... (more) Unemployment Rate and Part Time Employees

Comments vote down The Baseline Scenario found this 7/6/2009found this
oldprof.typepad.com - 7/10/2009
Intuition and Economics
— oldprof.typepad.com — (This is the second installment of our series describing how the BLS might respond to critics of the Birth/Death adjustment. See Part One here. ) Everyone uses intuition, making decisions that seem instinctive rather than the result of a carefully ... (more) Intuition and Economics

Comments vote down Daily Markets found this 7/10/2009found this
FORECAST: June 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 260,000 (Updated 7/1/09)
hdi.wantedanalytics.com - 7/2/2009
FORECAST: June 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 260,000 (Updated 7/1/09)
— hdi.wantedanalytics.com — Based on improving Hiring Demand levels and the most recently-reported monthly payroll data for May, WANTED Technologies is forecasting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a loss of 260,000 jobs in its upcoming June Employment Situation ... (more) FORECAST: June 2009 — Total Nonfarm Payroll Down 260,000 ...

Comments vote down A Dash of Insight found this 7/2/2009found this
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Blog Reactions

Thursday links: a nation of renters
Abnormal Returns — ... currency carry trade?  (SSRN) Let’s hope Larry Summers does a better job with the US of A’s finances than he did with Harvard’s.  (Felix Salmon) A look at a new Economic Momentum Index.  (Carpe Diem) By a broad measure unemployment has hit 16.5%.  (Real Time Economics also Curious Capitalist, Calculated Risk) Forget unemployment rates, check out the ...

Evening Briefing for July 2nd
TraderFeed — ... range; strong U.S. dollar; weak commodities; falling 10-year Treasury rates. Broad market decline: 293 20-day highs; 696 lows. Looking ready to test June lows. * OVERSEAS/OVERNIGHT NUMBERS - 12 Midnight CT - Japan, Leading Indicators; 3 AM CT - EU, PMI; 4 AM CT - EU, Retail Trade. * WORTH READING: -- Investor optimism has taken a fall. -- Unemployment already worse than bank stress test assumptions. -- ...

Stressful
SCSUScholars — This graph shows the unemployment rate compared to the stress test economic scenarios on a quarterly basis as provided by the regulators to the banks (no link). This is a quarterly forecast: the Unemployment Rate in Q2 was higher than the "more adverse" scenario. Note also that the unemployment rate has already exceeded the peak of the "baseline scenario".From Calculated Risk, hat tip to Henry Blodget, who correctly adds: The larger story here, unfortunately, is that the Obama administration continues to blow ...

Related: unemployment 9.5% graph
White House Expects 10% Unemployment Soon, and Stock Market
calculatedriskblog.com 6/30/2009 — The AP reports that White House spokesman Robert Gibbs says Obama expects "10 percent unemployment within the next few months". By popular demand ... Click on graph for larger image in new window. The first graph shows the S&P; 500 since 1990.  ...
Employment Report: 467K Jobs Lost, 9.5% Unemployment Rate
calculatedriskblog.com 7/2/2009 — From the BLS : Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in June (-467,000), and the unemployment rate was little changed at 9.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job losses were widespread ...
Depression Era Unemployment Rate — Calculated Risk
Just for information purposes, the following graph is from Northern Trust . What was the high of the unemployment rate in the Great Depression? The civilian unemployment rate was around 25% during several months of 1932-1933 Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows ...
Office Vacancy Rate and Unemployment — Calculated Risk
Last night Reis reported that the U.S. office vacancy rate hits 15.9 percent in Q2. (See Reis: U.S. Office Vacancy Rate Hits 15.9% in Q2 for a graph). Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph shows the office vacancy rate vs. the quarterly unemployment rate and recessions. ...
Is the economic stimulus effective? — Bubble Meter
Back when President Obama was arguing for the fiscal stimulus package, his economic team created a graph forecasting the effects of the fiscal stimulus. The blue lines below show the expected unemployment rate with and without the fiscal stimulus. The maroon dots show the actual unemployment ...
Unemployment Update — Greg Mankiw's Blog
Source of graph. Click here for my discussion of it.
Freddie Mac Delinquencies and Unemployment Rate — Calculated Risk
Yesterday I posted a graph of the Freddie Mac delinquency rate by month since 2005. I was asked if I could add the unemployment rate ... so by request ... Click on graph for large image. This graph shows the Freddie Mac single family delinquency rate and the unemployment rate since 2005.  ...