econbrowser.com - 5/15/2009
—
A couple of disappointments in this week's data.
New claims for unemployment insurance have peaked just before the end of each of the last half-dozen recessions.
Black line: 4-week average of seasonally adjusted weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, from Department of ...
Comments
Blog Reactions
Economic indicators take a negative turn
The Skeptical Speculator —
James Hamilton looked at the latest US economic indicators and asked "Where's my recovery, dude?" [T]he Labor Department reported today that seasonally adjusted new claims for unemployment insurance rose by 32,000 for the most recent available week. That bumps the 4-week average to 630,000, up 6,000 from its value the previous week... Well, if recovery cannot be discerned from the latest US data, it's not apparent in today's European GDP report either. From Bloomberg: Europe’s economy contracted at a record pace in the ...
Related Content
Dude, Where's My Rally?
online.barrons.com 1/17/2009 — WHAT A DIFFERENCE A week makes! Last week, I wrote in this column that technical conditions were still constructive for a resumption of the short-term rally. Within days, the positive signs I saw evaporated, and now the bears have resumed control. As ...
Harvard: 'Nothing Is F-----, Dude'
dealbreaker.com 11/11/2008 — From: Drew Faust To: undisclosed-recipients
Sent: 11/10/2008 2:41 PM
Subject: Harvard and the economy
To Harvard Faculty, Students, and Staff:
I write today about the global economic crisis and its implications for
us at ...
Dude, Where's My Tenge?
leopolis.blogspot.com 2/10/2009 — Last year if one said that Kazakhstan was the "Iceland of Central Asia" it would have been a compliment. "Kazakhstan looks like a small version of Iceland with its banks borrowing from abroad. A currency crisis becomes a banking crisis, it becomes ...
Not a robust recovery
econbrowser.com 6/8/2009 — Often after a sharp economic downturn we observe an equally dramatic recovery . But nobody can claim to be seeing that so far in the currently available data.
Since the beginning of April, we've been discussing one potentially favorable indicator ...
Is the Recession Over?
calculatedriskblog.com 7/15/2009 — Last night Merrill Lynch declared the recession over. From Tom Petruno at the LA Times: 'Recession is over,' BofA Merrill Lynch tells investors And from CNBC: It is usually difficult to tell when a recession has ended - especially for a ...
End of Recessions and Unemployment Claims
calculatedriskblog.com 4/15/2009 — A number of forecasters have mentioned Unemployment Claims as an important indicator of the end of a recession. Professor Hamilton mentioned this last week: Initial unemployment claims and the end of recessions . Historically this is a useful ...
The End of the Official Recession?
calculatedriskblog.com 9/16/2009 — First, a nice mention in Newsweek (thank you): The Financial Meltdown in Words (see slide 4 for a quote from Feb 2005, ht Matthew, Eric) On the end of the recession, from Bloomberg: Bernanke Says U.S. Recession ‘Very Likely’ Has Ended “Even though ...
Is That Recovery We See?
hf-implode.com 4/11/2009 — "The market, we keep hearing and reading, is telling us that there is recovery around the corner. And pundits point to data that seems to suggest the worst is behind us. The leading economic indicators, while still down significantly, seem to be in the process of bottoming. There is a large ...
Recession and Recovery: How Long?
baselinescenario.com 5/25/2009 — I’ve commented earlier that many economic forecasts seem to assume reversion to the mean – here, meaning average economic growth over the last two decades. For a great example, go to the Wall Street Journal and admire the GDP growth rates projected for Q3 2009 through Q2 2010, ...
Unemployment Initial Claims Peak Predicts Recession End
mast-economy.blogspot.com 5/29/2009 — Over the weekend, I read a very interesting article by world renown macroeconomist Bob Gordon. Gordon documents a tight correlation between the GDP contraction tough and the final peak in unemployment claims for a recessionary cycle. Accordingly a ...
When The Recession Forces You Out of Town —
The Big Money 5/14/2009
Newly launched Double X is chronicling the recession on their career blog, " The On Ramp ." In this first installment, readers recount the moves they've made--geographically speaking--to stay afloat in the recession. One reader tells her story:
...