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market-ticker.denninger.net - 1/1/2009
Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2009)
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Let's score the 2008 edition predictions first: US will enter a recession : Confirmed by NBER. Check. Unemployment will rise north of 5% . Check (bigtime) Housing will not turn in 2008. Major check. The story in 2008 will be defaults on prime mortgages. Check. Consumer ...

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Beanieville Inc.:  Big Bad Bear

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com - 1/6/2009
Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important)
— krugman.blogs.nytimes.com — Bit by bit we're getting information on the Obama stimulus plan, enough to start making back-of-the-envelope estimates of impact. The bottom line is this: we're probably looking at a plan that will shave less than 2 percentage points off the average ... (more) Stimulus arithmetic (wonkish but important)

Comments vote down Mises Economics Blog found this 1/6/2009found this
The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2
econbrowser.com - 1/3/2009
The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2
— econbrowser.com — In my previous post , I presented evidence that the oil price increase over 2007:H2-2008:H1 made a significant contribution to the slowdown in consumption spending in general and decline in spending on domestic automobiles in particular. Here I ... (more) The oil shock and recession of 2008: Part 2

Comments vote down Institutional Economics found this 1/3/2009found this
cboblog.cbo.gov - 1/7/2009
The Budget and Economic Outlook
— cboblog.cbo.gov — This morning CBO released the B udget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2009-2019 . This volume is one of a series of reports on the state of the budget and the economy that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues each year. Because ... (more) The Budget and Economic Outlook

Comments vote down SCSUScholars found this 1/7/2009found this
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Big Bad Bear
Beanieville Inc. — Karl Denninger's 2009 Predictions: * The economy will not recover in 2009. Job loss will continue through the year and unemployment will reach 8% in the "headline" statistic by the end of the year. U-6 (broad unemployment, or the closest to "real" unemployment without government "cooking") will top 15%. All the "talking heads" are predicting a turnaround in the second half of 2009. They will be wrong. Look at their records for 2008 - all of them were predicting closes at or above 1500 for the S&P; 500. Why does CNBC continue to put ...

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