businessinsider.com - 7/5/2009
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money burning tbi The most important article you can read this weekend is economist Stan Leibowitz's analysis of loan level data on 30 million mortgages. His conclusion is straight-forward: the most important driver of foreclosures is homeowner equity. This means that the loans most likely to ...
online.wsj.com - 7/3/2009
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online.wsj.com —
STAN LIEBOWITZ What is really behind the mushrooming
rate of mortgage foreclosures since 2007? The evidence from...
a huge national database containing millions of individual loans strongly suggests that the single most important factor is whether the ...
(more)
New Evidence on the Foreclosure Crisis
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Sunday links: short ban redux
Abnormal Returns —
... What variables predict foreclosure? “This means that the loans most likely to default are high loan to value, low-down payment loans.” (Clusterstock) ...
Seven Notes, Primarily on the Financial Sector
The Aleph Blog —
... significantly less than replacement costs, it is not a good scene.
Regarding CMBS, as the loss estimates ratchet up, the credit ratings ratchet down. Securities sold in 2005 and after will suffer, as well as marginal CMBS from earlier vintages.
2) Outside of conforming mortgages, losses in residential mortgages are considerable. Consider how S&P is raising its loss assumptions on alt-A loans. Or consider how being underwater, or close to underwater affects the willingness of people to default.
3) That last article helps point ...
New Evidence on the Foreclosure Crisis - WSJ.com
FinanceProfessor.com —
... payments so much as it implies that the borrower is more willing to walk away from the loan." and later yet: "...stronger underwriting standards are needed -- especially a requirement for relatively high down payments. If substantial down payments had been required, the housing price bubble would certainly have been smaller, if it occurred at all, and the incidence of negative equity would have been much smaller even as home prices fell" HT to John Carney and the good folks over at ClusterStock's Business Insider
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A study I blogged on last week found borrowers who lost their home to foreclosure in November 2006, 2007 and 2008 often had cashed-out all their equity. The data for the ...
More Evidence of the "Foreclosure Backlog"
calculatedriskblog.com 7/8/2009 — From Peter Hong at the LA Times: L.A. County's May default rate double last year May's 9.5% [seriously] delinquency rate [more than 90 days] for L.A. County was up from 5% of mortgages ... in May 2008 [First American CoreLogic reported today]. ... ...
12 pct. are behind on mortgage or in foreclosure
(AP)
news.yahoo.com 5/28/2009 — AP - A record 12 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure as the housing crisis spreads to borrowers with good credit. And the wave of foreclosures isn't expected to crest until the end of next year, the ...
Zero Down Is a Foreclosure Factor (Duh)
ritholtz.com 7/3/2009 — There is a kind of weird OpEd in today’s WSJ by Stan Liebowitz. The professor makes the incredible discovery that zero down payments, 100% LTV financings tend to slide in great numbers into foreclosure:
“What is really behind the ...
7 Factors That Led to Crisis
ritholtz.com 6/4/2009 — As I was working on Bailout Nation , I struggled to communicate the many forces that in combination led to the collapse.The book details all of the many elements involved, but I wanted a visual way to depict this.
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12% in Foreclosure or Delinquent
ritholtz.com 3/6/2009 — Wow, how is that for a data point?
About 5.4 million American homeowners with a mortgage (~12%) were either behind in their payments or already in foreclosure at the end of 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
That’s about ...
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