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They decide all the elections
The Distributed Republic —
A nice illustration of Bryan Caplan's thesis.
Elections are decided by numbers, and the ignorant outnumber the knowledgeable, so the ignorant decide the outcome. This casts an odd light on the lengthy and detailed explanations by the hyper-informed as to why they voted the way they did. A single person only gets one vote, so it is hardly of earth-shattering importance how they voted, let alone why. Sure, a single voter's explanation may be of interest as a microcosm of what tens of millions of people were thinking. Were that only so! Alas, a writer informed enough to give a ...
How the News Media Influenced Obama Voters
Club for Growth —
This video is burning up the InterWeb tubes today. It's from the new website, How Obama Got Elected:
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — THE IRONY OF DEMOCRACY . I still have the 1971 edition I purchased for "Introduction to Politics," which had the number Political Science 101 at Wisconsin. It opens, "Elites, not masses, govern America." That observation is not necessarily a complaint: the book offers ample evidence that mass attitudes toward democracy are sometimes negative and sometimes illiberal. Now comes a video featuring interviews with Obama voters that suggests scant voter awareness, at least in a cherry-picked sample. I found this video at Sykes Writes , accompanied by recognition that a small sample says little. I also found a link to a Zogby survey , using the sampling ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — DIVISION OF LABOR . Last week, Alaska governor Sarah Palin pardoned a turkey at a turkey farm and then gave an interview that causes vapors at the Huffington Post, and scoffing elsewhere, with Armed Liberal unimpressed . Mark Steyn is saltier . Tim Blair kept track of reactions around the web. Power Line had the best comment . Yes, it's quite a scandal in Liberal Land. Sarah Palin actually doesn't mind when turkeys are killed, almost in her very presence. Which is the rub, I suppose. Unlike the Governor, most liberals make sure they're somewhere else when animals are being slaughtered for food. The post also suggested that Norman Rockwell ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — ADVERSE SELF-SELECTION . During my stay in Detroit, a neighbor once mentioned that Warren police would advise Blacks to not let the sun go down on them in that suburb. Now comes James W. Loewen's Sundown Towns , which confirms that, and tells much more about the attitudes and unofficial policies that rendered what the press and the policy makers called de facto residential segregation, generally in the North, effectively de jure segregation, despite the Supreme Court having made the controlling laws unconstitutional as early as 1917. Professor Loewen began his work after hearing a number of stories similar to my Warren experience, only in central Illinois, near Decatur. He ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — BIPARTISANSHIP . That's the political class working to fleece the rest of us in such a way to enhance their chances of election. The dynamic is at work in the hearings on bailing out the legacy car companies. Detroit automakers' best hope for Washington aid is a bipartisan plan to speed the release of $25 billion in already-approved loans under the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). But long-simmering hostilities between the California and Michigan delegations on auto issues threaten the deal. California legislators want that money to subsidize their own Silicon Valley-based auto industry, which they argue is the future of American transportation. The Detroit Three ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — THE GLORY OF FERROEQUINOLOGY . This pacing sequence , from west of Wisconsin Dells, features Milwaukee 4-8-4 261 returning from New Lisbon. The train is going only a little faster than the Estonian steam train we noted last week . The location, however, is historically significant: this is the Sand Country east of New Lisbon through Mauston and Lyndon Station over which the world's fastest scheduled steam trains rolled. Imagine a streamlined, 300 psi 4-6-4 with eleven on at double 261's speed, or possibly, just possibly, touching 125 or 126 before the engineer has to check for the curves and the bridge at the Dells, just another day at work. Labels: ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — GETTING THE INCENTIVES RIGHT . A Minneapolis Star-Tribune editorial, suggesting enhanced state support for higher education, inadvertently on purpose establishes that the source of poverty and inequality is not college . Growth & Justice researchers calculate that each year’s “class” of about 10,000 Minnesota high school dropouts will deprive the state of $10.6 billion over their lifetimes, in lower tax revenues and higher outlays for things like food stamps, Medicaid, housing subsidies and criminal justice services. A commenter recognizes the error in logic. The problem is the awful education our children are receiving in K-12. How can you increase the number of college ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — I KNOW I'VE MADE SOME VERY POOR DECISIONS . Dave. Stop, Dave . Word reaches Cold Spring Shops that General Motors can assure us now , very confidently, that they feel much better. General Motors today unveiled an unusually frank advertisement acknowledging it had "disappointed" and sometimes even "betrayed" American consumers as it lobbies to clinch the federal aid it needs to stay afloat into next month. I know everything hasn't been right with me, Dave. The print advertisement marked a sharp break from GM's public stance of just several weeks ago when it sought to justify its bid for a U.S. government on the grounds that the credit crisis had undermined its business in ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — BLAGO TO JAIL . If it's a new jail, he probably collected $200 to let the contracts. The complaint contends Blagojevich, a Democrat, threatened to withhold substantial state assistance to the Tribune Co. in connection with the sale of Wrigley to induce the firing of Chicago Tribune editorial board members critical of Blagojevich. The governor is also accused of obtaining campaign contributions in exchange for official actions — in the past and recently in a push before a new state ethics law takes effect Jan. 1. Transversality conditions. Not just for qualifying exams anymore. The transcript of the evidence makes me nostalgic for the days of [expletive deleted]. The ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — QUOTE OF THE DAY . Joanne Jacobs reviews Sweating the Small Stuff: Inner-City Schools and the New Paternalism . “Nagging is love,” I used to tell my daughter. “I am a much-loved child,” she’d reply. And so it is: if you care about a kid, you tell her what she’s doing right and what she’s doing wrong. You stick with her when she makes mistakes. You honor her successes. You nag. In Sweating the Small Stuff: Inner-City Schools and the New Paternalism , David Whitman finds that idea replicated in education. To give disadvantaged students a shot at college and mainstream success, he argues, schools must teach “not just how to think but how to act according to what are ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — RESTRUCTURING HIGHER EDUCATION . The American Prospect 's David Kirp reviews Charles Murray's Real Education , and finds much to object to. Because Murray thinks that innate differences in cognitive ability guarantee that most people cannot do the intellectual heavy lifting that serious higher education demands, truth No. 3 -- too many children go to college -- inescapably follows. "No more than 20 percent" of students can do college-level work, says Murray, and "10 percent is a more reliable estimate." Putting aside the faulty statistical analysis that leads Murray to that dour conclusion, this "truth" is rebutted by the fact that about 35 percent of young adults, ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — TO GO WITH ALL THAT DEPRESSION TALK . Christmas approaches, and the Depression-era Lionel gets tested. Labels: good cheer , institutions , winter
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — CAUSE AND EFFECT . Chicago Tribune automobile columnist Jim Mateja says more than he intends , in making a case for federal succor for the legacy car companies. Chrysler, which so adroitly plied the bailout waters 30 years ago, is not such a sure thing. It has the least to offer in new technology or product and has the smallest global footprint, which means it can't rely on subsidiaries in foreign countries with less intensive labor costs to help them out like GM and Ford can. That's despite all the bragging from the Pentastar in the early 1980s about repaying the loan early. Advantage, Cold Spring Shops . Then comes this backhanded compliment. For years, GM, Ford ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — WHY IT MATTERS . Over the weekend, I had the opportunity to help judge the Global Economic Summit of High School Students, organized by the Students in Free Enterprise chapter at Rock Valley College . The winning team is from Rockford Jefferson High School, representing Tanzania. [image] The young lady holding the trophy stole the show by opening her presentation in Swahili, with another team member translating into English. Should any of these students beome rich enough to be offered an invitation to participate in a can't-miss hedge fund , they'll be savvy enough to ask the right questions and walk away. It's really very simple. If the seller can't ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — A RAIL ADVOCATE PASSES . Charlie Sykes reports the death of Paul Weyrich . James Rowen correctly describes one aspect of Mr Weyrich's advocacy. Weyrich, an ally of former Mayor John Norquist's on the rail issue despite their party differences, thought government's monopoly provision of highways violated free market principles because it withheld the rail choice from taxpayers. We've noted Mr Weyrich's rail advocacy , and the beginning of his activism working to save the North Shore Line , numerous times over the years. Labels: history , interurbans , State Line , transportation policy
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — CREATIVE DESTRUCTION INVOLVES DESTRUCTION . King Banaian contemplates the oxymoron that is "orderly bankruptcy." The Bethlehem bankruptcy was also blamed on " complacency and high labor contracts " that left it less competitive. Its bankruptcy did not kill the U.S. steel industry: US Steel is still in the Fortune 500 , just not a top 20 company any more. In 2008 American steel producers will make about 76 million metric tons of crude steel according to Stratfor . That's half of what we produced in 1970, as imports have replaced the use of steel, and as we have found substitutes for the product. (Those CAFE standards could be one reason for that.) Maybe ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — TONIGHT'S RAILROAD RECOLLECTIONS . A North Shore Line deadhead move to Highwood Shops passes through Highland Park on the one Shore Line Route track retained for freight service and shop traffic. [image] So far, December has recalled those early 1960s Decembers, when the North Shore Line was finishing its existence amid similarly wintry conditions. Labels: decline and fall , history , interurbans , winter
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — THE PUBLIC BE D***ED REDUX . Winter comes, with Amtrak delays trying passenger patience . About 450 Amtrak passengers were stranded at Union Station for nearly a day -- first in a cold waiting room, then on the train without food, water or, at times, functioning restrooms, passengers said. The Empire Builder train headed to the Pacific Northwest, with stops in Portland, Ore., and Seattle, was scheduled to leave at 2:15 p.m. Monday but finally departed about 1:22 p.m. today. Amtrak issued a statement early this afternoon that blamed the situation on "severe weather" that has caused "rail infrastructure and railcar issues, affecting deployment cycles for equipment and train ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — EXCESSIVELY CREATIVE DESTRUCTION . There are markets for products, and there are markets for corporate control. Markets for products determine which products will continue to be offered to consumers. Some products remain successful for a long time. Oreo cookies come to mind. Some products are failures. Edsel Ford is more than the name of a Detroit expressway. The market for corporate control determines what happens to the gains or losses from selling products. Losing managers get fired (absent clever accounting or government guarantees.) It does not follow, however, that succesful managers get to keep their jobs. Perhaps their staid products lose their appeal. Perhaps their strong cash ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — DOMINANCE SOLVABILITY AND MAXIMIN . Steven Landsburg's More Sex Is Safer Sex: The Unconventional Wisdon of Economics makes Book Review N o . 49 identify Yet More Diminishing Returns to Partial Equilibrium Anomalies . He does make use of a number of recent papers, many of which are published in highly-regarded journals. For the most part, the problems are variations on the prisoners' dilemma (in its common property version) with careful attention to the loss function. Perhaps it's a case of familiarity with the subject leading to my ennui. Somebody relatively new to economics well might enjoy the work. On the other hand, perhaps it's my ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — THE CONSEQUENCES OF COSTLY INFORMATION . Daniel Ariely's Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions is a helpful introduction to work in behavioral economics, with references to recent papers, many in quality journals. I'm not as familiar with this field as I am with the partial equilibrium anomalies that add an element of fun to introductory economics, even if the recent additions to that collection are sometimes strained. Thus Book Review N o . 50 highlights another work that might reward careful study, particularly among people looking for dissertation topics. Let me note, though, that the author makes claims about ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR . Pat Choate's Dangerous Business: The Risks of Globalization for America spells out what the author believes those risks are. This Book Review N o . 51 will be relatively short. If you are prepared to grant that trade agreements give corporate interests the opportunity to trump national sovereignty, and that latter-day mercantilists and cosmopolitans act in their own interests, in ways that are not consistent with national interests, you'll enjoy this book. It's not as gloomy as a Patrick Buchanan work. Its perspective on previous eras of globalization is not cheerful. Mr Choate proposes a number of reforms, most of ...
COLD SPRING SHOPS. — CORDELL-SAN WILL WANT TO KNOW . I picked up Railroad: Identity, Design and Culture . There's enough material in the book to make it a candidate for some future book review. This picture deserves commentary. There is a 1976 series Japanese bullet train car in preservation at Britain's National Railway Museum in York. [image] The picture, from page 61, quaintly refers to the "driver's cab." The language is vintage American interurban. Local ferroequinologists like to speak of the Electroliner as the basis for the bullet trains (a 1951 speed test might have attained the top ten for speed records with electric traction at the time) and it's possible that the Japanese ...
